The 'Academy Award's Prediction' Review

This past week the Golden Globes announced their nominees, thus kicking off the unofficial awards season. As a movie aficionado I love to see how these all come together and try to understand the Hollywood mentality that pushes a No Country for Old Men past a Juno. So, with that in mind, I’ll stick my … neck … on the line and predict what I think will be the nominees for the 82nd Academy Awards, which will officially be announced on February 2, 2010.

This year will mark a few changes to the normal program, most notably the field for Best Picture has been expanded from five nominees to ten, providing a more balanced selection of the film projects on the market. Also, the actual awards presentation, taking place on March 7, 2010 will feature two hosts, Steve Martin (fresh of his latest hit, 1979’s The Jerk - In reality, he hasn’t made a movie of note in the ‘00s) and Alec Baldwin (a jerk fresh from ripping of the leading actor in a comedy Emmy out of the hands of Jim Parsons).

And with that (I predict) the nominees for the Academy Award are:

Best Picture:

The Lock:
1. Up in the Air
I cheered for Jason Reitman in Thank You for Smoking (casting Rob Lowe was perfect). In Juno, partnering with Diablo Cody and revealing the talent of Ellen Page, I became a convert. And now, timing the economy with a realization tale featuring George Clooney is the perfect completion of his Triptych. Up in the Air is the film to beat in a crowded field.

The Field:
2. Avatar
Dear James Cameron: Cheer up! Though you laugh at budget limits and have belittled virtually all of your staff and actors over the years, you’re a shoo-in for your big budget 12-year pet project to receive a nomination! Now about that casting of Billy Zane in Titanic…

3. Nine
Hands down the best cast in one film in this year’s pickings. And with Rob Marshall (Chicago, Memoirs of a Geisha) working his dreamscape magic (or is that shadow-world?), Nine may be the dark horse to take it all.

4. Up
It’s a cop-out to say “Those boys at Pixar keep getting better and better!”, that’s what every reviewer has said … for the last 10 years. In reality, I consider Wall-E a slight dip in quality with Up the recovery back towards their upward trajectory. And you thought I had them up here just cuz the director’s from Bloomington.

5. Inglorious Basterds
Every critic, movie-goer, and Tarantino-phile appeared to go head-over-heels in this supposed “Return to Glory” for Hollywood’s bad boy. Yes, Christoph Waltz should walk away with the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. Yes, this is Tarantino’s best film since Kill Bill I. Still, I got bored in the middle – which unfortunately coincided with the scenes of the title characters. Plus, I can not dutifully support a movie where Brad Pitt delivers, unquestionably, the dumbest line of his otherwise illustrious career: ‘What’s next? Lies on ice?’ Dreadful.

6. Invictus
Clint can do no wrong…
Or can he? I’m befuddled as to why the best move of 2008, his masterful Gran Torino, didn’t get an invide to the party. Is Hollywood’s best director really a Hollywood outsider? Invictus is everything the Academy loves – hardship, racial tension, forgiveness and, (ahem) rugby. Still, if it gets this far, it’s a make up call for last year.

7. Precious
Relative newcomer Lee Daniels directs this second-chance heartwarmer which has won over millions. I’m sure it’s a fantastic movie.

I just have zero interest in seeing it.

8. The Hurt Locker
It’s taken quite a while to come to it, but finally a film involving the middle-east conflict looks suitable enough for serious contention. With graphic reality and a surprising cast in diversity and scope, Kathryn Bigelow deserves a shot at the Director’s Oscar for her work here.

9. Julie and Julia
The movie perhaps most in line to drop from the nominee list, its topic is just too light when compared with the field. Still Nora Ephron has come a long way from Sleepless in Seattle and Meryl Streep … well, she could find her way to a nomination in just picking up her daily mail.

10. A Serious Man
Did I say Clint can do no wrong? I meant the Coen tandem can do no wrong! Their usual character dramas: bloated, fully flawed, and occasionally pot-smoking bowlers, reach a bit of a lull here with a period piece featured in mid-century suburban Minneapolis. Still, they have an eye for talent (Michael Stuhlberg) and propelled by their 2007 win (No Country for Old Men).

Getting Screwed:
Star Trek
It’s really hard to be in this position and there are a number of contenders for the #11 spot. But here’s my rationale – the entire reason the field was expanded from five to ten nominees for best picture was 2007’s The Dark Knight debacle. There, what was a fundamentally sound film was passed by based on its blockbuster status. In 2009, despite steps made to avoid the same fate, Star Trek is going to fulfill that role of not receiving an invitation to the party. Chris Pine will have a long and distinguished career ahead of him and Star Trek vehicles will keep Hollywood flush for a decade to come. So why not step up to the plate and admit as much with a nod? Alas, it’s not in the cards.

The Also-Rans:
(500) Days of Summer
Cute enough to angle its way into a Golden Globe nod, but not yet heavy enough for Academy Award status.

Sherlock Holmes
Ah, would this be a fun one! Truly a contender, and could you imagine the Madonna-loathing acceptance speech from Guy Richie. I can dream, can’t I?

Where the Wild Things Are
Really in the running, that is until Academy voters realized they were mature enough to handle voting-pressure without throwing dirt in the air. In all seriousness, a remarkable turn by Spike Jonze.

An Education
Has all the proper requisites: Coming-of-age, English, and Peter Saarsgard, yet is a bit of an outsider for pure Hollywood acceptance. Lone Scherfig has two more American films to do, I predict, to break the nominee barrier.

The Lovely Bones
Great “Awards Season” buzz may propel Peter Jackson’s effort into a nominee spot yet. (I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Julia/Bones swap.) Still, I feel, will fall into what I’ll call “The Brokeback conundrum”, an area where the movies subject matter delves into topics that the Academy just doesn’t want to touch. (Did I just describe the Academy as too ‘conservative’ for this film? Shocking even for me).

Best Actor:

The One to Beat:
1. George Clooney – Up in the Air
When Clooney teamed up with a tripped-out Trantino in From Dusk ‘til Dawn, I literally wondered what he was doing still muddling around on TV’s ‘ER’. In early 2010, his transition will be complete; no actor has ever invoked Cary Grant as well as Mr. Clooney.

The Field:
2. Michael Stuhlberg – A Serious Man
Another masterful find from the Coen’s career of eliciting the best talent out of the best actors available. Momentum continues to climb for him and he’ll soon be out of darkhorse status.

3. Colin Firth – A Single Man
I may cheer loudest for this English version of the everyman, should the field be narrowed this way.

4. Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
Bit actor makes good on his shot at the lead role.

5. Ben Whishaw – Bright Star
I’m taking a bit of a leap of faith here – the film is challenging topic which is a serious challenge connection with the audience – yet I’m channeling the chance that the Academy realizes its love for biopics (Amelia aside) and gives this second Englishman the nod.

Really Wishing He’d be There:
Sam Rockwell – Moon
I’m not above pride here. Sam’s been my pick for ‘the next big thing’ for two years now and hands in a stellar performance in this decidedly low-tech scifi adventure. I’m shocked as to why he’s not in the awards conversation at the end of the year. Yeah, scifi doesn’t bode well in the voting. Yeah it was released in June. Still, a powerful one-man show and a demo of the actor’s abilities for years to come.

The Nixed:
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
The man most likely to knock out Whishaw for the final spot. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flip-flop on those two. Bridges is best in staggering drunk/drugged out roles.

Robert Downey Jr. – Sherlock Homes
Could Downey parley a Golden Globe nomination into an Oscar’s nomination? I can hope, but I’d still put him at 7-8 for the prize.

Sharlto Copley – District 9
If I had a real head on my shoulders, I’d put Copley in the “wish he’d be there” spot. The Scifi dorks have it right, Copley is amazing, but District 9 has the same Achilles heel as Moon.

Chris Pine – Star Trek
My feel-good pic – doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance. Can’t wait to see him standing next to Shatner in 2011 though.

Matt Damon – The Informant
Here’s a role which is bringing back prominence for Damon. Still, there will be better roles handled in by him in the future.

Mark Wahlberg – The Lovely Bones
Wahlberg could go either way. If the Bones hype machine gets going, he’s in. If voters actually analyze what the film’s about, he’ll be in the sidelines.

Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine
What is this? A new sensation for the method actor. I predict an award’s hangover and a near miss after his phenomenal turn in There Will be Blood.

Morgan Freeman – Invictus
On the simple premise “I portray Nelson Mandela” should get him a nomination.

Best Actress:

The Top:
1. Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
In her first role, Sidibe packages everything the Academy holds dear: overcoming stark adversity, encompass a can do attitude, and clear message through changing circumstances. All ethnicity aside, Sidible channels Jennifer Hudson in her first role and win for 2006’s Dreamgirls.

The Field:
2. Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia
Another year, another nomination (yawn). Streep gave amazing life and depth to a recently passed on and re-discovered American icon. The Academy eats up roles like this.

3. Penelope Cruz – Broken Embraces
Cruz is not afraid to take on the dual role of muse, to both director Pedro Almodovar and lead character Harry Caine in this love-struck tale. This time, the duo will duplicate and may even trump, Cruz’s 2006 nomination when they teamed up in Volver.

4. Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
And with this, Sandra’s return to prominence, which started with the better-than-it-should’ve-been The Proposal, is complete. Still, the film will have to carry with it a lot of sentiment to win.

5. Carey Mulligan – An Education
The academy loves (loves!) to award The Best Actress to A) Journey-women honor roles or B) fresh-faced newcomers. Consider Mulligan one of the lead horses in the latter. Of course, then there’s Sidibe’s role to overcome.

The Say It Ain’t So:
Saoirse Ronan – The Lovely Bones
What a heavy, heavy topic, and phenomenal that a 15 year old actress can pull it off. Is she deserving? Yes. Over other nominees? Well…

The Nixed:
6. Charlize Theoron – The Burning Plain
She does a fantastic job of mixing box office draws (Mighty Joe Young, Hancock) with more artistic fare (North Country, The Cider House Rules) and may waltz her way into her third nomination.

7. Hilary Swank– Amelia
Two strikes: The biopic hype has mostly passed by, cresting in 2005 (please note Whishaw above for my incongruence!), but looming larger, the film itself was a box office dud. Not typically what the Academy likes to, or should, reward.

8. Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Mirren dons some serious make up for this one, but her role beside Christopher Plummer as Tolstoy (Tolstoy? Oh, that Tolstoy!) is not nearly as fun as her 2006s The Queen.

So there you are: sticking my neck out on the line for the sake of discussion. So how will I do? We’ll know in six weeks when actual nominees are announced on February 2, 2010, with the awards ceremony a month later on March 7. Until then ... go see Avatar!